Широка страна моя углеродная
Потери экспортеров от налога ЕС на выбросы превысят $2 млрд в год
Прямые потери российских экспортеров от ввода углеродного налога ЕС с учетом прямых и косвенных выбросов могут составить $2,3 млрд в год, подсчитали в Институте проблем естественных монополий (ИПЕМ). Это эквивалентно ввозной пошлине в 24%. По оценкам экспертов, под регулирование в текущей версии механизма может попасть российский экспорт на $9 млрд в год. Косвенные потери от снижения потребления электроэнергии и тепла внутри РФ из-за снижения экспорта составят еще около $222 млн.
Рисунок: Виктор Чумачев, Коммерсантъ
Рисунок: Виктор Чумачев, Коммерсантъ
Аналитики ИПЕМ сделали первую попытку оценить полную прямую нагрузку на экспортеров России от углеродного налога ЕС (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, СВАМ) после опубликования официальных предложений Еврокомиссии 14 июля. Эксперты рассчитали нагрузку на экспортеров от платы за прямые выбросы парниковых газов в процессе производства (Scope 1) и от косвенных выбросов по всей цепочке создания товара (Scope 3). Нагрузка за прямые выбросы (Scope 1) может составить $1,13 млрд в год при стоимости тонны СО2-эквивалента на европейской бирже EU ETS $60. При этом нагрузка по Scope 3 окажется больше и превысит $1,16 млрд в год.
Предполагается, что ЕС с 2026 года начнет взимать трансграничные сборы за углекислый газ, выделяемый при производстве продукции. На первом этапе речь идет о черной и цветной металлургии (алюминий), химии (азотные соединения), азотных удобрениях и электроэнергии. В целом под регулирование может попасть российский экспорт на $9 млрд в год, по подсчетам ИПЕМ.
Экспортеры электроэнергии и цемента будут платить только за прямые выбросы (Scope 1) — по $306 млн и $2,3 млн в год соответственно. Самый большой налог, скорее всего, будет приходиться на отрасль черной металлургии: нагрузка по Scope 1 составит $314,1 млн, а по Scope 3 — $955,9 млн. Для отрасли азотных удобрений платеж по Scope 1 достигнет $1,7 млн в год, а по Scope 3 — $64,7 млн. Общая нагрузка (Scope 1 и Scope 3) на отрасль азотных соединений составит $349,5 млн, цветных металлов — более $305 млн.
Из-за нового налога ЕС удорожание всей российской экспортируемой продукции в среднем составит 24%. Цена российской электроэнергии для ЕС вырастет на 48%, азотных соединений — на 70%, стоимость продукции черной металлургии увеличится на 26%, а цемент подорожает почти в два раза.
Для расчета Scope 3 аналитики оценивали прямые выбросы Scope 1 не только для товаров, подлежащих платежам в рамках CBAM (например, чугун и алюминий), но и для сырья, используемого в их производстве (например, кокс и глинозем), пояснил “Ъ” заместитель гендиректора ИПЕМ Александр Григорьев. «Прямые выбросы для сырья умножались на коэффициент, отражающий использование этого сырья при производстве рассматриваемой продукции. Например, учитывалось, что для тонны чугуна нужно 0,47 тонны кокса, а для тонны алюминия — 1,9 тонны глинозема. Аналогичные связи были рассчитаны и между видами продукции, попадающей под CBAM (например, между чугуном и сталью, аммиаком и азотными удобрениями)»,— говорит он.
Аналитики института рассчитали и возможный косвенный эффект от введения углеродного налога ЕС. Например, из-за возможного снижения производства экспортной продукции в России упадет спрос на электроэнергию и тепло. Такие косвенные потери оцениваются в $222 млн в год. Но в реальности эффект может быть больше — за счет сокращения спроса на другие виды товаров (руды, нефтепродукты и пр.).
Трансграничное углеродное регулирование ЕС оказалось мягче ожиданий
Основные развилки по механизму CBAM так и остались непройденными, предупреждает Владимир Лукин из КПМГ. «В частности, не до конца ясно, как будет выглядеть методология оценки фактических выбросов. Неясной также остается динамика цены на углерод и амбиции европейского регулятора по расширению области регулирования на новые виды продукции (нет сомнений, что это рано или поздно произойдет). Таким образом, методологический уход от сценарных оценок пока преждевременен. Но основное негативное следствие СВАМ может быть связано с тем, что создан прецедент, когда климатические амбиции одной группы стран (или страны) финансируются всем окружающим миром»,— полагает эксперт. Такой подход, по его мнению, могут использовать страны, рынок которых представляет существенное значение для экспортных товаров в перспективе, в частности Китай.
Какой scope будет учитывать cbam
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How the EU CBAM will shape emissions costs
These include a proposal to revise the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and a proposal to implement a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which would both impact the primary aluminium sector. As scope 2 emissions are excluded from the CBAM coverage, the proposals impact primarily the outlook for scope 1 emissions costs calculations.
Free allocation to be gradually phased out from 2026
The CBAM addresses the so-called risk of ‘carbon leakage’ and is an alternative to the system of free allocation put in place in the EU ETS. As such, the proposals provide that free allocation under the EU ETS will be gradually phased out from 2026, as the CBAM is phased in. More precisely, a factor of 0.9 will be applied to free allocations in 2026, which will decrease by 0.1 each year as shown in the table below. This means free allocation will be completely phased out by 2035, and by this time, industrials will have to pay for all of their emissions.
This directly impacts the outlook for scope 1 emissions costs, as all the emissions that a smelter produces which are not allocated for free need to be auctioned.
The table below shows the average scope 1 emissions across smelters operating in the EU ETS, as well as the outlook for the average amount of free allocations, as calculated according to the EU ETS regulations and taking into account the CBAM factor. By 2031, free allocations would represent 36% of all scope 1 emissions, which means smelters would pay for 64% of their scope 1 emissions, on average. With an EU Allowance (EUA) price of $60/t CO2e, the average scope 1 emissions cost would be around $74/t Al.
The chart below shows CRU’s base case forecast for the average scope 1 emissions cost across European smelters out to 2031, as well as what would be the outlook if no CBAM factors were applied.
Benchmarks update for the 2025-2030 period
The proposal to revise the EU ETS does not change the basic rules for calculating the free allocations received by smelters. Free allocation is based on benchmarks representing the level of performance of the best-in-class installations, within the industry. Benchmark values have been published for the 2021-2025 period, i.e. the first sub-phase of the EU ETS phase 4. However, the benchmark values for the second sub-phase running until 2030 still need to be assessed and published.
The EC’s recent proposal to revise the EU ETS provides that the maximum annual reduction rate for the benchmark values will increase from 2026, to 2.5% instead of the 1.6% currently in place. This maximum rate applies to all industries, and the actual rates applying for the aluminium industry may be lower and depend on how best-in-class installations improve performances in terms of emissions. In CRU’s base case, as shown above, the values of 1.416 and 0.302 have been used for the electrolysis benchmark and pre-bake anode benchmark, respectively, for the 2026-2030 period. They correspond to a 0.7% annual reduction rate relative to the benchmark values applied during the 2021-2025 period.
Какой scope будет учитывать cbam
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How the EU CBAM will shape emissions costs
These include a proposal to revise the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and a proposal to implement a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which would both impact the primary aluminium sector. As scope 2 emissions are excluded from the CBAM coverage, the proposals impact primarily the outlook for scope 1 emissions costs calculations.
Free allocation to be gradually phased out from 2026
The CBAM addresses the so-called risk of ‘carbon leakage’ and is an alternative to the system of free allocation put in place in the EU ETS. As such, the proposals provide that free allocation under the EU ETS will be gradually phased out from 2026, as the CBAM is phased in. More precisely, a factor of 0.9 will be applied to free allocations in 2026, which will decrease by 0.1 each year as shown in the table below. This means free allocation will be completely phased out by 2035, and by this time, industrials will have to pay for all of their emissions.
This directly impacts the outlook for scope 1 emissions costs, as all the emissions that a smelter produces which are not allocated for free need to be auctioned.
The table below shows the average scope 1 emissions across smelters operating in the EU ETS, as well as the outlook for the average amount of free allocations, as calculated according to the EU ETS regulations and taking into account the CBAM factor. By 2031, free allocations would represent 36% of all scope 1 emissions, which means smelters would pay for 64% of their scope 1 emissions, on average. With an EU Allowance (EUA) price of $60/t CO2e, the average scope 1 emissions cost would be around $74/t Al.
The chart below shows CRU’s base case forecast for the average scope 1 emissions cost across European smelters out to 2031, as well as what would be the outlook if no CBAM factors were applied.
Benchmarks update for the 2025-2030 period
The proposal to revise the EU ETS does not change the basic rules for calculating the free allocations received by smelters. Free allocation is based on benchmarks representing the level of performance of the best-in-class installations, within the industry. Benchmark values have been published for the 2021-2025 period, i.e. the first sub-phase of the EU ETS phase 4. However, the benchmark values for the second sub-phase running until 2030 still need to be assessed and published.
The EC’s recent proposal to revise the EU ETS provides that the maximum annual reduction rate for the benchmark values will increase from 2026, to 2.5% instead of the 1.6% currently in place. This maximum rate applies to all industries, and the actual rates applying for the aluminium industry may be lower and depend on how best-in-class installations improve performances in terms of emissions. In CRU’s base case, as shown above, the values of 1.416 and 0.302 have been used for the electrolysis benchmark and pre-bake anode benchmark, respectively, for the 2026-2030 period. They correspond to a 0.7% annual reduction rate relative to the benchmark values applied during the 2021-2025 period.
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